(1) The energy division shall evaluate the information provided under ARM 14.8.205 and may recommend the voluntary curtailment provisions of an energy supply alert if unacceptably high probabilities of future mandatory curtailment exist.

(a) In evaluating the data provided under ARM 14.8.205(1) the energy division may recommend:

(i) stage 1 voluntary curtailment actions when there is a 40% probability that stage 1 mandatory curtailment will be imposed in the current or ensuing July-June period, and

(ii) stage 2 voluntary curtailment actions when there is a 60% probability of implementing stage 1 mandatory curtailment in the current or ensuing July-June period.

(b) In evaluating the data provided under ARM 14.8.205(2) , the level of voluntary curtailment recommended will depend on the severity of the shortage.

(2) The energy division may recommend declaration of an energy emergency and imposition of mandatory curtailment measures if unacceptably high probabilities of future inability to meet regional firm energy or capacity requirements exists or if an individual utility cannot meet its firm loads.

(a) In evaluating the data provided under ARM 14.8.205(1) the energy division may recommend:

(i) stage 1 mandatory curtailment measures when there is a 20% probability of depleting the generating capability of regional reservoirs before the next April 30;

(ii) stage 2 mandatory curtailment measures when there is a 40% probability of depleting the generating capability of regional reservoirs before the next April 30; and

(iii) stage 3 mandatory curtailment provision when the region's reservoir generating capability is in imminent danger of being depleted and greater curtailment is required than has been achieved or is attainable under stages 1 and 2 of mandatory curtailment.

(b) In evaluating the data provided under ARM 14.8.205(2) the level of mandatory curtailment recommended will depend on the severity of the shortage.